Monday Morning Quarterbacking
After 5 weeks, there are 7 teams above the rest with a few others who still have the jury out. Those seven in no particular order include 3 from the SEC, 2 from the Big 10, 1 from the ACC and an independent: Texas, Georgia, Bama, Ohio State, Indiana, Miami and Notre Dame. After Saturday, either Alabama or Georgia will have a loss since they play each other.
On Saturday, two of the SEC “Flavors of the Week” got exposed and boat raced: Mississippi State by Alabama and Florida by Missouri. If anyone truly believes they saw either of those scores on the horizon, I want you picking lottery numbers and forecasting the weather.
Even though the Big 10 has won the last 3 Nattys AND could do it again this year, they have 2 top teams (Ohio State and Indiana) followed by Oregon. The next 3 teams (Southern Cal, UCLA and Iowa) still have question marks. The others have started concentrating on basketball.
Compare that to the SEC. As stated above, Texas, Georgia and Alabama, so far, seem to be the most polished teams. It’s no coincidence that all three have been getting consistent quarterback play. The next group of teams can beat anybody when they are on. Conversely, they can also lay an egg on any given Saturday.
Check out this list: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU, Florida, Tennessee and Missouri. Each of these have signature wins but also some key losses. The two teams surprisingly left off are Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Both have talent but just haven’t put it together so far. This Saturday, Oklahoma has a chance to make a statement at the Texas State Fair, where they play Texas.
This leaves the bottom 5 with the goal of becoming bowl eligible by winning six games: Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vandy and Arkansas. The new 9-game SEC schedule eliminated a cupcake game and sure win. Do the math.
Unless there are some real upsets along the way, the SEC Championship game should be between those top 3 teams. With Georgia, Game Day and Donald Trump visiting Tuscaloosa this Saturday, in a “way too early prediction,” the Bama vs. Dog winner should face Texas in Atlanta for the championship.
In my best Lee Corso “not so fast my friend,” there are 7 more weeks of football to be played. Look up the definition of “football cannibalism” and you will understand the SEC and what I mean.
The following statement isn’t to be construed as an early excuse for Saturday’s losing team between Bama and the Dogs but I said it here first: this weekend’s loser might be eliminated from the useless SEC Championship Game. If either Alabama or Georgia finishes with only THAT loss, the odds are that they will be seeded somewhere between #5 and #8 and host a first-round playoff game. As competitors, anytime you strap on a jock, you play to win. This is just a way of saying that a loss isn’t the end of the world.
AUBURN: right now, the Tigers are sitting at 3-2 after losing to the Vols in Knoxville. The loss can be boiled down to lack of discipline, shaky quarterback play and a bone-headed coaching decision on 4th down with the game still very much in reach.
Auburn committed 11 penalties on Saturday including 6 false starts. A couple of these came after a timeout or injury stoppage which is inexcusable. (I said the same thing last year when the Tide did it).
Coaches get paid big dollars to make quick decisions. Yes, Pat Dye said that afterwards, you have 50-50 hindsight. On 4th down and one from its own 24-yard line with 6 and a half minutes left in the game and trailing 17-14, Alex Golesh chose to go for it. Instead of sneaking their 6’5” quarterback they ran a counter pitch wide and the running back got nowhere near the first down. Tennessee took over, already in field goal range but scored a touchdown to go up by 10 (2 scores).
The one Tiger unit that was playing well was their defense AND the Vols were playing their backup QB. From a risk-reward standpoint, that decision will be scrutinized for a while.
ALABAMA: Nick Saban said it best: of all the teams that the Tide had to play, getting the team ready and up for Mississippi State was always the biggest challenge. On Saturday, however, Bama put together its most complete game in all 3 areas. Keelon Russell showed why he jumped to the top of the betting boards for the Heisman. Some of the throws he made are only made on Sundays and very few NFL quarterbacks can actually make them.
The one throw on a deep “dig” route was thrown in a window between safeties, 30 yards down field. (Dig is an 18-yard square in route, between 2-deep safeties.) The offensive line- so far, might be the most physical one since the last national championship team in 2020. The fact that the tight ends are big and athletic doesn’t hurt any.
When Alabama goes with 13 personnel (1 back and 3 tight ends), they are mauling people. I jumped up from my barstool and yelled like a cheerleader when they came out in the old I-formation, using a 260-pound tight end as the lead blocker.
On defense, there were some mistakes made but they are playing reckless and causing turnovers. When other teams see this while studying film on Bama, it plants a little seed of doubt about taking offensive chances.
This Saturday in Tuscaloosa should be a classic. Kirby Smart will have his Dogs ready to play. No doubt. The betting line will be close to a “pick-em.”
That usually favors the home team.
It’s a little too soon to start playing the X-rated version of “Dixieland Delight” or practicing Rammer Jammer ad nauseum. But as Coach Bryant used to say:
“Be prepared for everything.”